WP6 Assessment of Confidence

start date month 19 – closing date month 35

WP LEADER: LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

WP6 aims to pilot a balanced portfolio of social indicators of public confidence in justice. There are four main objectives: first, to field the survey questions that were conceptualised in WP3 and operationalised in WP4; second, to interpret results and integrate them with the contextual data described under WP5; third, to develop an overall indicator that balances valid and reliable measures of the constituent components and is harmonised at the EU-level (while also incorporating contextual data) and, fourth to provide guidance to policy makers on how to assess policies aimed at improving public confidence. Particular care will be given to ensure that the approach in combining the various streams of data is science-based, theory- and concept-led, but at the same time policy-driven (i.e. amenable to use by policy makers for assessment and evaluation).

The following tasks will be implemented in WP6:

Task 6.1: Conducting the survey

This task will consist of the fielding of the survey questions that comprise level 1 and level 2 attitudinal indicators of public confidence (conceptualised and operationalised in WP3 and WP4) in certain representative areas of Europe, chosen in light of their value as representatives of significant criminal trends, policy trends, as well as local peculiarities. The fielding will be conducted by a subcontractor survey company. The surveys will be nationally representative of the jurisdiction under study.

Task 6.2: Assessing survey-based indicators through statistical analysis

This task will interpret and present the results of the pilot survey. Latent variable modelling will be used to examine the dimensionality of the data and to condense the information into relevant indices. Confirmatory factor analysis allows the test of latent variable models of individual indicators where those indicators are (typically) treated as continuous (most of the survey questions will likely use likert scales, and these produce data which are often treated as interval-ratio). However, latent trait and latent class analysis may be used when variables are categorical.

Task 6.3: Integrating the survey-based indicators and contextual data

This task will generate ways of integrating levels 1 and 2 indicators (derived from population-sample surveys) with the contextual data produced by the level 3 indicators. These indicators – which are not harmonised at EU level – highlight specificities in particular areas and help interpret level 1 and level 2 indicators. The key task is to construct a simple of collating and presenting the information, probably using graphical devices such as spidergrams, which will offer accessible and efficient methods of comparing confidence in a series of Member States. However, alongside this will be brief summaries of specific contextual factors which may vary from one jurisdiction to another, describing different systems of law and government, or cultural and historical factors which characterise public opinion and the relationship between citizens and criminal justice institutions.

Task 6.4: Assessing policy through the new indicators of public confidence

This task will develop clear guidelines for how policy makers can use our instrument in order to develop and evaluate policy. The instrument will allow some illustrative cross-national comparisons, show the performance of particular countries, and highlight specific problems which require attention. It will thus provide policy makers with comparative data on information on goal achievement, best practice and areas of deficiencies and need for action.

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